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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 33

Denver Broncos 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(:14) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.27 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model