Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 63

Denver Broncos 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

(11:34) 6-S.Martin punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.72 EP
64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model