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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 8

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.17 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 8, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP