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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 15 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 10-K.Huber punts 56 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 22 for 12 yards (34-S.Perine). PENALTY on DEN-37-P.Locke, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 10. Penalty on DEN-40-J.Strnad, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.71 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model