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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 63

Denver Broncos 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 15

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 22 for 5 yards (40-J.Strnad).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.99 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model