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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 58

Cincinnati Bengals 15 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to DEN 7, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 25 for 18 yards (84-M.Wilcox; 47-K.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.61 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 58, worth -1.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model