Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 91

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Denver Broncos 0

(2:27) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to DEN 34, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -3.26 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.50 EP
63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 91, worth -5.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model