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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 60

Denver Broncos 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to CIN 16, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.58 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model