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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 8

Dallas Cowboys 6 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 2-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.05 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 8, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP