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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Giants 3 – Dallas Cowboys 15

What Actually Happened

(13:48) 28-D.Booker left end to DAL 35 for 31 yards (18-D.Kazee). PENALTY on DAL-18-D.Kazee, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 35.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model