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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 24

New York Giants 3 – Dallas Cowboys 15

What Actually Happened

(12:10) 5-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.36 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model