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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 44

Dallas Cowboys 15 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 5-B.Anger punts 36 yards to NYG 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.20 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP