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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 58

Dallas Cowboys 21 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NYG 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.25 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 58, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP