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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 49

Dallas Cowboys 21 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to NYG 7, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.55 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model