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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(:45) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to GB 26, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 39-C.Sullivan.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.94 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model