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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 20

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:15) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley right tackle to GB 17 for 3 yards (59-D.Campbell; 93-T.Slaton).

The Three Options

GO +3.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.05 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model