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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 20

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.16 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model