Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Green Bay Packers 28

(12:01) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right to 28-L.Murray.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

What Happened

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.35 EP