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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 11

Green Bay Packers 28 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.27 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 11, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model