Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 69

Houston Texans 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(9:37) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-J.Mickens to JAX 18 for -2 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model