Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 90

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Houston Texans 20

(13:06) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to 50, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 25-D.King to JAX 47 for 3 yards (55-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.18 EP
69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 90, worth -5.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model