Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 56

Houston Texans 23 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 11-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to JAX 1, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-J.Mickens to JAX 49 for 48 yards (43-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on JAX-91-D.Smoot, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 49.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.71 EP
62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 56, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model