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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 4

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 15-M.Wright 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +3.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.50 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 4, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP