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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 85

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 3-J.Berry punts 49 yards to CHI 36, Center-42-A.DePaola. 17-J.Grant to CHI 35 for -1 yards (59-N.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.79 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 85, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 43, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model