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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 16

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 2-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.97 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 16, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model