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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:38) 3-J.Berry punts 48 yards to CHI 10, Center-42-A.DePaola. 17-J.Grant pushed ob at CHI 16 for 6 yards (35-L.Stocker).

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.01 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 58, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP