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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 54

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.61 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -0.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model