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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Chicago Bears
4th & 1 at the 21
Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 17
What Actually Happened
(1:02) 1-J.Fields sacked at MIN 23 for -2 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
The Three Options
GO
+2.83 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.57 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
KICK
+1.81 EP
- 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
- 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT
+0.08 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
