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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 49

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 80-J.Graham to MIN 36 for 13 yards (59-N.Vigil; 55-A.Barr).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.91 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP