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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 17 at the 19

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 1-G.Joseph 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.14 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 19, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model