4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 7

Indianapolis Colts 14 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 6-M.Badgley 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.21 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 7, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model