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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to NE 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 22 for 1 yard (30-G.Odum). FUMBLES (30-G.Odum), ball out of bounds at NE 22.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.52 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 25, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP