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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 7

New England Patriots 7 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 7, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model