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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 57

Indianapolis Colts 20 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 2-C.Wentz left guard to IND 44 for 1 yard (54-D.Hightower; 90-C.Barmore).

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.99 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 57, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model