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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 50

New England Patriots 17 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short right to 80-G.Olszewski (26-R.Ya-Sin).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.16 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 50, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model