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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to NYJ 17, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 26, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP