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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 39

Miami Dolphins 7 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 28-D.Johnson right end to NYJ 33 for 6 yards (33-E.Riley).

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.50 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -1.91 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model