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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 6

Miami Dolphins 7 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.72 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 6, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model