Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 72

New York Jets 17 – Miami Dolphins 10

(13:29) 7-B.Mann punts 50 yards to MIA 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 85-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model