4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 81

Miami Dolphins 31 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to NYJ 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 37 for 12 yards (45-D.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.66 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 81, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 38, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model