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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 9

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 15-E.Pineiro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.12 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 9, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model