Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 65

New York Jets 10 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 7-B.Mann punts 48 yards to MIA 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 85-T.Lewis. PENALTY on NYJ-41-J.Pinnock, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.05 EP
66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model