Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to BAL: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.116 vs Josh Johnson (BAL) +0.336 EPA/dropback (BAL starting Josh Johnson in place of Tyler Huntley)
- BAL offense: -0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- CIN defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- BAL defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
BAL
CIN
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:10 FG CIN (11:10) 2-E.McPherson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. BAL 0 – CIN 3
- Q1 06:00 TD BAL (6:00) (Shotgun) 15-J.Johnson pass short middle to 12-R.Bateman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – CIN 3
- Q1 00:30 TD CIN (:30) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – CIN 9
- Q2 13:28 TD CIN (13:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 83-T.Boyd for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – CIN 16
- Q2 07:08 TD CIN (7:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 28-J.Mixon for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – CIN 23
- Q2 01:44 TD BAL (1:44) (Shotgun) 33-D.Freeman left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – CIN 24
- Q2 00:24 TD CIN (:24) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 85-T.Higgins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 14 – CIN 30
- Q3 00:44 FG CIN (:44) 2-E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. BAL 14 – CIN 34
- Q4 15:00 TD BAL (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-J.Johnson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CIN-57-G.Pratt, Defensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BAL 20 – CIN 34
- Q4 10:08 TD CIN (10:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 85-T.Higgins for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 21 – CIN 40
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%
(11:10) 2-E.McPherson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%
(:30) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(14:21) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to CIN 23, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 29 for 6 yards (46-N.Moore).
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Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(11:16) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to CIN 32, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 42 for 10 yards (85-E.Tomlinson).
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Q3 BAL 4th & 17 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(11:16) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to CIN 14, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 64%
(4:41) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 85-T.Higgins pushed ob at BAL 25 for 13 yards (54-T.Bowser).
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Q3 CIN 4th & 13 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%
(:44) 2-E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 66Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(8:07) 28-L.Murray up the middle to BAL 34 for no gain (92-B.Hill).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 20 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 76%
(5:20) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.