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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 7-Y.Koo 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.95 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 35, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model