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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 68

Detroit Lions 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to ATL 11, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP