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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 30

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.46 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model