4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 28

Detroit Lions 13 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 69-W.Holden reported in as eligible. 30-J.Williams right end to ATL 26 for 2 yards (54-F.Oluokun).

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.28 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model