4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 17

Detroit Lions 13 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(5:32) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short middle to 11-K.Raymond to ATL 13 for 4 yards (45-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.67 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model