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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 8

Detroit Lions 13 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 6-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.86 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 8, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model