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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 8

Detroit Lions 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 6-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.10 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 8, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP